Opening remarks

The Romanian Fiscal Council represents an institutional transposition and an integration of the European fiscal regulations into the domestic law. Although it is a relatively new institution at European and national levels, the Fiscal Council, like its counterparts, has an important task to perform in the Romanian context for several reasons:

•  The European fiscal legislation – embodied in the Romanian legislation mostly through the Law no. 69/2010 republished – has its origin also in the lessons of the Great Recession. Countries with vulnerabilities, augmented by pro-cyclical fiscal policies, external deficits and increased indebtedness fueled by unrestricted capital movements (specific to the Single Market) and by the lack of macro-prudential tools, have suffered painful corrections after 2009. This reality calls for prudence and caution when formulating economic policies, manifested in the fiscal-budgetary area, through the creation of fiscal space. Even if the European legislation will be simplified and, perhaps, completed – through a “European fiscal capacity” –, Romania should obey the letter and, above all, the spirit expressed by the Fiscal Responsibility Law. This spirit implies transparency, predictability and comprehensiveness in the construction and execution of public budgets and a fair tax regime.

• The fiscal space is vital in emerging economies which, by definition, do not issue reserve currencies. Such economies need appropriate “buffers”, especially in times of high uncertainty and rapidly changing financial markets. The Romanian leu is not a reserve currency, and the National Bank of Romania does not have a room for maneuver similar to large central banks. That is why large imbalances must be a cause for serious concern and policy action in order to avoid the deterioration of financial stability, sovereign risk rating, financing and the dynamics of the economy.

• Public debt reached about 59% of GDP in 2025 from about 35% of GDP in 2018, according to the EU methodology, and the deepening of the “twin deficits” in recent years, especially the external one (the current account deficit exceeded 8% of GDP in 2024), with a worsening financing structure, singles out Romania compared to other member states in the region; a large-scale correction of the budget deficit is absolutely necessary.

• ·         The exodus of human capital and rising labor shortages led to wage increases directed at mitigating this phenomenon. However, excessive external imbalances eventually take their toll and can demand drastic adjustments when the international environment becomes unfavorable; wage increases must be related to productivity and the competitiveness of the economy.

• A proper calibration of the policy mix is essential to protect economic stability. This policy must take into account the medium and long-term objectives of the Romanian economy, avoiding ad-hoc measures, not based on a thorough analysis.

• The issue of economic policy harmonization is all the more important as the benchmarks to be achieved are not confined to managing the current situation, but have a very ambitious objective – as proposed by the report drafted under the supervision of the National Commission, as well as by the associated Action Plan –, that of joining the Euro Area (and, in advance, entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism – ERM2); a country with large deficits can neither join the Euro Area, nor enter ERM2.

• Tax revenues need to increase, given the underfunding of basic public goods – education, health and infrastructure. Tax revenues of about 28% of GDP are considerably below the requirements and needs of an EU member state. The necessity to increase tax revenues should also consider the new pension law. This law seeks to restructure the pension system on a more equitable basis, but has a major impact on the public budget and will greatly complicate the effort to reduce the structural deficit.

• While concrete fiscal corrections are a matter of public and political debate – they can be achieved both by increasing tax revenues, as well as by adjusting the structure of public expenditures, while respecting the principle of efficiency –, the need for broader adjustment of the consolidated budget is beyond question.

• Defense expenditures, which will increase in the future, and the aging population, greatly complicate the fiscal correction process.

The mission of the Romanian Fiscal council is to serve society with professional honesty, to evaluate the design and implementation of fiscal-budgetary policies and the relationship with other components of economic policy.

A difficult stage – that of institutional construction – has been covered in the previous mandate and now it must be continued by dedicating the best efforts in the service of Romania’s economic interests as an EU member state.

 Acad. Daniel DĂIANU

  Chairman of The Fiscal Council